Comparing Median Quarterly Wages Before, During, & After the COVID-19 Pandemic Recession

Published March 2024

Overview

This study analyzes the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic recession on employment rates in Utah’s labor force and the median quarterly wages for the top areas of study for postsecondary graduates in Utah. Combining data from the Utah System of Higher Education (USHE) and the Department of Workforce Services (DWS), we examined how these variables of interest changed before, during, and after the COVID-19-induced economic recession in 2020.

Researchers examining the impact of the recession caused by the coronavirus, lasting from March-April 2020, have found that one of the main indicators of whether employees lost their jobs was their educational attainment. Individuals with higher educational attainment were less likely to lose their positions due to working in sectors of the economy that were capable of transitioning to remote work (Mongey et al., 2020; Montenovo, et al., 2021). In comparison, those with only a high school diploma were more susceptible to job loss because of their greater likelihood to work in industries such as leisure and hospitality or retail trade – sectors that require close contact with employees and customers.

20,460 individuals are included in this study. 16,609 are USHE graduates with awards ranging from certificates to graduate degrees; the remaining 3,851 are individuals that were enrolled in a USHE institution in 2012 and have not yet received a postsecondary award from USHE institutions. Each of these individuals’ workforce histories in Utah were analyzed, and individuals were classified as “strongly attached” to the workforce or not. Individuals who were strongly attached to the workforce earned $3,770 or more in all four quarters within a given annum, or the expected earnings of an individual working 40 hours per week for the federal minimum wage.

Summary of Findings

Finding 1: The employment rate of USHE graduates slightly increased during the pandemic, whereas the employment rate of non-graduates marginally decreased.


Finding 2: In both total and strongly attached employment, graduates usually had higher wage growth than their non-graduate counterparts during and after the pandemic recession.


Finding 3: The top five areas of study – which account for 54% of all 2012 graduates – did not see large swings in overall employment rates during the COVID-19 pandemic recession, though some programs' strongly attached rates were impacted.


Finding 4: Compared to rates from the prior year, bachelor’s degree recipients from the top areas of study did not have their rates in Utah’s labor force decline during the pandemic recession, but rather, at the end of 2020.


Finding 5: All significant differences in median quarterly wages pre- and post-pandemic indicated an increase in income for the top areas of study.


Finding 6: Of the award types analyzed, bachelor’s degree recipients had the most significant tests indicating different wages pre- and post-pandemic recession.


View Glossary of Terms

Detailed Findings

Finding 1: The employment rate of USHE graduates slightly increased during the pandemic, whereas the employment rate of non-graduates marginally decreased.

Total employment and
strongly attached employment increased by
0.3% and 0.2%,
respectively, between
2019Q2 and 2020Q2.

Total employment among
non-graduates fell by
1.2% and 0.4%
for all and strongly attached employees, respectively,
over the same time.

  • Between 2013Q1 and 2021Q4, the strongly attached employment rate increased by 13.9% for non-graduates and 2.3% for graduates. During the same time frame, total employment rates for non-graduates and graduates decreased by 5.8% and 11.6%, respectively.
  • Compared to their rates the year prior, postsecondary graduates’ total employment rate increased by 0.3% in 2020Q2, and the strongly attached employment rate increased by 0.2%. In comparison, non-graduates’ employment in 2020Q2 decreased by 1.2%, and the strongly attached rate fell by 0.4%.
  • In 2021Q2, the only subgroup not to have employment above their 2019Q2 rates were total non-graduates; their rate was 1.6% below their pre-pandemic level. Strongly attached graduates had their highest employment rate in 2021, 0.7% above their 2016 employment rate, their previous high.
Figure 1: Employment rates for all and strongly attached enrollees and graduates, 2013Q1 to 2021Q4

Finding 2: In both total and strongly attached employment, graduates usually had higher wage growth than their non-graduate counterparts during and after the pandemic recession.

Between 2019Q2 and
2020Q2, graduates'
median quarterly wages increased by
$642 and $792
for all and strongly
attached employees,
respectively.

The difference in median
quarterly wages before
and after the pandemic recession increased by
$770 among all employed
non-graduates, and $640
for strongly attached
non-graduates.

  • The cohort of all employed graduates increased their annual wages by $400-$1,100 depending on the quarter comparison between 2019Q1 and 2021Q4. Likewise, strongly attached graduates increased their wages by $680 to $1,330 over the same period.
  • The cohort of all employed non-graduates increased their quarterly incomes by $300-$900.
  • By 2021Q2, graduates had their wages increase by approximately $1,000 from 2019Q2, whereas all and strongly attached non-graduates increased their quarterly wages by $768 and $638, respectively.
  • These differences are statistically significant.
Figure 2.1: Median quarterly wages for non-graduates and graduates, 2013Q1 to 2021Q4
Figure 2.2: Statistical significance of year-over-year wage growth during and following the COVID-19 pandemic recession, by workforce attachment and graduation status

Finding 3: The top five areas of study – which account for 54% of all 2012 graduates – did not see large swings in overall employment rates during the COVID-19 pandemic recession, though some programs' strongly attached rates were impacted.

Among all employed
graduates in 2020Q2,
only Liberal Arts graduates
experienced a decline
in their employment rate
from the prior year –
a contraction of 0.8%.

Health program
graduates' strongly
attached employment
rate declined sharply
by 7.1% in 2020 before
rebounding in 2021
by 12.9%.

  • Liberal Arts programs were the only area of study for which the cohort of all graduates saw their employment rate decline, by 0.8%, between the second quarter of 2019 and 2020. The other top areas of study saw marginal increases.
  • Between 2019Q4 and 2020Q4, the total employment rate of USHE graduates declined. Graduates from Health programs had the largest reduction at -13.2%; the second largest difference was Education graduates at -4.7%.
  • By the second quarter of 2021, the cohort of all USHE graduates had an employment rate above its pre-pandemic level in 2019Q2. Business program graduates showed the largest increase at 1.4%.
  • The strongly attached employment rate increased between 2019 and 2020 in three of the top five most common areas of study. The two areas of study that saw declines were among Liberal Arts and Health program graduates, dropping by 0.4% and 7.1%, respectively.
  • In 2021, USHE graduates' top five areas of study had strongly attached employment rates above their pre-pandemic levels in 2019, with Health graduates having the largest increase at 5.9%.
Figure 3: Total and strongly attached employment rates among USHE graduates in the five most popular areas of study, 2013Q1 to 2021Q4

Finding 4: Compared to rates from the prior year, bachelor’s degree recipients from the top areas of study did not have their rates in Utah’s labor force decline during the pandemic recession, but rather, at the end of 2020.

The cohort of all individuals
from Health programs
had the largest decline in
employment rates, at -8.7%
between the fourth quarters
of 2019 and 2020.

By 2021Q2, one year after
the pandemic recession,
each of the top areas of
study had employment
rates above their
2019Q2 levels.

  • The cohort of all employed bachelor’s degree recipients from the top areas of study increased their employment rates between 2019Q2 and 2020Q2. Liberal Arts graduates had the largest increase at 1.8%, with Health graduates having the smallest increase at 0.3%.
  • In 2020Q4, all of the top areas of study saw decreases in their employment rates, with graduates from Health programs having the largest decline at -8.7%.
  • One year after the 2020 recession, all of the top areas of study were above their 2019Q2 employment rates in the Utah workforce.
  • Health graduates who were strongly attached to the labor force were the only area of study to decline in their emplyment rate between 2019 and 2020, dropping by 5.5%. The other top areas of study varied in the magnitude of their increases, with Liberal Arts having the largest positive change at 3.5%.
  • By 2021, the top areas of study were above their 2019 employment rates by at least 2.0%. Health graduates' employment rates grew by 9.2% between 2020 and 2021, and by 3.6% overall from 2019 to 2021.
Figure 4: Overall and strongly attached employment rates for bachelor's degree recipients from the five most popular areas of study, 2013Q1 to 2021Q4

Finding 5: All significant differences in median quarterly wages pre- and post-pandemic indicated an increase in income for the top areas of study.

About Findings 5 and 6
These sections examine the significant wage differences from pre- to post-pandemic recession, observed among employed bachelor’s degree graduates from the most popular areas of study. Statistical testing compared the differences in median quarterly wages from the same quarters in 2019 and 2020 (e.g., 2019Q3 and 2020Q3), and from the same quaters in 2020 and 2021; in total, eight tests were conducted. Other postsecondary award types (certificates, associate degrees, and graduate degrees) underwent the same testing to compare their differences in pre- to post-pandemic recession wages. Bachelor’s degree recipients had the greatest number of quarterly comparisons showing significant differences in pre- to post-pandemic recession wages. Therefore, herein we focus on bachelor’s degree recipients only. For information on the outcomes of other award receipients, please see the full report.

All and strongly attached
graduates from Education
and Business programs
had significantly higher
post-pandemic recession
wages in 5 of 8 tests
performed.

The programs with
significantly different
pre- and post-pandemic
recession wages were
different for strongly
attached and non-strongly
attached workers.

  • Median quarterly wages for the cohort of all employed Education graduates increased by $675-$1,560 from pre- to post-pandemic recession, while graduates who were strongly attached to the workforce saw wage increases of $678-$1,650.
  • Graduates from Liberal Arts programs had one instance of significantly higher median wages for both the cohort of all and the cohort of strongly attached employed graduates, though they were observed in different quarters. All and strongly attached employees increased their median wages by $1,100 from 2019Q2 to 2020Q2, and $1,400 from 2019Q4 to 2020Q4, respectively.
  • The cohort of all employed graduates from the Social Sciences saw significant wage increases in only one of eight periods tested, by $1,400 in 2019Q4 to 2020Q4.
  • The cohort of all employed and strongly attached Health program graduates increased their wages by $1,300-$1,850 and $875-$1,775, respectively, from before to after the pandemic recession.
  • Business program graduates had among the highest increases to their median quarterly wages. The cohort of all employed Business graduates increased their quarterly wages by $912-$1,731, while strongly attached graduates' saw their median wages increase by $857-$1,938.
  • All differences discussed herein are statistically significant.
Figure 5.1: Median quarterly wages for all and strongly attached graduates from the five most popular areas of study (irrespective of award type), 2013Q1 to 2021Q4
Figure 5.2: Statistical significance of year-over-year wage growth during and following the COVID-19 pandemic recession, by workforce attachment and area of study

Finding 6: Of the award types analyzed, bachelor’s degree recipients had the most significant tests indicating different wages pre- and post-pandemic recession.

Bachelor’s degree
recipients from
Education programs
had the greatest
number of quarterly
comparisons showing
statistical significance –
5 out of 8.

Social Science graduates
were the only group among
bachelor's degree recipients
who saw a decrease in
median wages between
2020Q1 and 2021Q1; all
other areas of study
saw wage growth.

  • The cohort of all employed and strongly attached Education graduates with bachelor’s degrees increased their median quarterly wages by $600-$1,400 and $600-$1,700, respectively. Furthermore, these increases in quarterly income occurred in the same significance tests.
  • Liberal Arts program graduates were the only Bachelor’s degree subgroup from the top areas of study to not see significantly different wages in any of the quarterly tests.
  • The cohorts of all and strongly attached Social Science bachelor’s degree recipients each had only one test indicating significantly different wages from the prior year. Interestingly, the cohort of all employed Social Science graduates saw their quarterly median wages decline by approximately $350, the only subgroup among bachelor's degree graduates that showed significantly lower median quarterly earnings.
  • Bachelor’s degree recipients from Health programs had significantly higher wages in two of the quarterly comparisons. The cohort of all employed graduates increased their median wages by $1,050 and $2,175 from 2019Q3 to 2020Q3 and from 2020Q4 to 2021Q4, respectively. Strongly attached employees grew by $1,100 from 2019Q4 to 2020Q4 and by $1,570 from 2020Q4 to 2021Q4.
  • Among bachelor's degree recipients in Business, all employed and strongly attached workers saw median quarterly wages increase between 2019Q4 and 2020Q4 by $1,400 and $1,275, respectively. The cohort of all employed individuals had one additional significant test signal an increase in income by over $1,000 from 2020Q2 to 2021Q2.
  • These differences are statistically significant.
Figure 6.1: Median quarterly wages for bachelor's degree recipients from 2013Q1 to 2021Q4, by workforce attachment and the five most popular areas of study
Figure 6.2: Statistical significance of year-over-year wage growth during and following the COVID-19 pandemic recession, by workforce attachment and area of study

Limitations

  • DWS wage data do not include the occupations nor job roles of individuals.
  • DWS wage data are aggregated quarterly and do not include hourly or monthly pay.
  • DWS wage data do not include wages paid to federal employees, individuals who are self-employed, or individuals employed by organizations exempt from participation in the Unemployment Insurance tax system under Utah law. DWS wage data also do not include black market, or “under the table” transactions, nor income earned outside of Utah.
  • Only USHE graduates are included in this analysis. Out-of-state and private institutions such as Brigham Young University and Westminster College are not included.

Conclusion

This study found that most tests showing significant differences in wage growth from the prior year indicate that median quarterly wages among USHE graduates increased during and after the COVID-19 pandemic recession. This seems counterintuitive, given the economic disorder caused by the COVID-19 outbreak. But research has shown that lower-wage individuals were the most at risk of losing their jobs during the pandemic recession. Increased wages may not reflect actual wage growth during this time, but rather, the appearance of increasing wages due to changes to the composition of Utah's workforce.

Full Report

Learn more about employment and wage growth during and after the COVID-19 pandemic recession

This report investigates workforce participation and wage growth during and after the 2020 economic recession caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. The employment rate of graduates from Utah's public colleges and universities actually increased during the recession, while employment rates of students who did not graduate from college decreased. Median quarterly wages during and after the recession are also analyzed for graduates of different postsecondary awards and areas of study.

Report cover

Glossary

References

Mongey, S. & Weinberg, A. (2020). Characteristics of workers in low work-from-home and high personal-proximity occupations. Becker Friedman Institute. https://bfi.uchicago.edu/wp-content/uploads/BFI_White-Paper_Mongey_3.2020.pdf

Montenovo, L., Jiang, X., Lozano Rojas, F., Schmutte, I. M., Simon, K. I., Weinberg, B. A., & Wing, C. (2021). Determinants of disparities in COVID-19 job losses [Working paper 27132]. National Bureau of Economic Research. https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w27132/w27132.pdf

Project
Team

Connor Hill
Connor Hill

Research Scientist
(Report Author)

Zachary Barrus
Zachary Barrus

Assistant Commissioner, User Experience